CLIMATE, MORPHOMETRY AND EROSIVENESS IN A HYDROGRAPHIC UNIT OF THE CERRADO OF THE DF: SOCIOENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS AND DIFFUSE RIGHTS

Abstract

Global climate change tends to generate insecurity, with the increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. These effects are exacerbated by anthropogenic processes such as uncontrolled urbanization in areas strategic for water recharge and the cushioning of negative impacts, compromising the widespread right to a balanced and sustainable environment for future generations. This study conducted a climatic and hydrological analysis of a hydrographic unit in the Córrego Tamanduá microbasin, located in the Cerrado region of the Federal District. The approach emphasized the morphometric characterization of the basin and the effects of changes in precipitation patterns on rainfall erosivity (RUSLE R factor). Rainfall data organized into three time series (1971 to 2001, 2002 to 2012, and 2015 to 2024) were used. The effects of both total precipitation levels and precipitation concentration were evaluated. The PCI (already established) and ISC (proposed with the aid of a generative AI tool based on bootstrapping with 10,000 combinations and 95% CI) indices were used as indicators of rainfall event concentration. The results indicate changes in rainfall distribution, particularly in recent times, with increased seasonality and erosivity estimates, which intensify water vulnerability. It is concluded that these changes pose a concrete threat to the collective and intergenerational right to a balanced environment, a fact exacerbated by disorderly urbanization and other anthropogenic actions that cause degradation of areas that play an important role in providing the ecosystem service of water production.