CAMBIOS HIDROCLIMÁTICOS EN LA CUENCA DEL RÍO CAETÉ, AMAZONÍA ORIENTAL BRASILEÑA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56238/arev8n2-029Palabras clave:
Dipolo del Atlántico, ENSO, Variables Meteorológicas, Flujo, TendenciasResumen
La variabilidad hidroclimática en la región amazónica está estrechamente vinculada a las interacciones océano–atmósfera a gran escala, particularmente al fenómeno El Niño–Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) y al Dipolo del Atlántico (DA). Este estudio investiga las interrelaciones entre la Temperatura Superficial del Mar (TSM), la Precipitación (P), la Temperatura Máxima del Aire (Tmaxaire), la Evapotranspiración (Et) y el Flujo (F) en la Cuenca del Río Caeté (CRC), localizada en la Amazonía Oriental, Brasil. Los conjuntos de datos hidroclimáticos correspondientes al período 1985–2023 fueron analizados mediante técnicas de mapeo, detección de tendencias (pruebas de Mann–Kendall y Pettitt) y análisis de correlación. Los resultados revelaron tendencias significativas de calentamiento en las anomalías de TSM en el Atlántico Tropical, lo que sugiere una mayor persistencia e intensidad de los eventos del DA. La precipitación en la CRC presentó una alta variabilidad interanual y fuertes correlaciones con las anomalías de TSM, particularmente provenientes del dominio atlántico. Aunque no se detectaron tendencias estadísticamente significativas para P, Tmaxaire o Et, el F del río Caeté mostró una tendencia decreciente (MKz = –1,47), indicando una posible reducción futura en la disponibilidad de agua. El análisis espacial confirmó distribuciones desiguales de las variables hidroclimáticas a lo largo de la cuenca. De manera destacada, los factores antrópicos —como la deforestación en las cabeceras del río— pueden amplificar los desequilibrios hidroclimáticos, incluso bajo condiciones climáticamente favorables. Estos hallazgos subrayan la importancia del monitoreo hidroclimático continuo y de las evaluaciones integradas de la dinámica del uso del suelo para anticipar los impactos socioambientales a largo plazo en las cuencas costeras amazónicas.
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