MÁS ALLÁ DE LOS RENDIMIENTOS FISCALES: EL IMPACTO SOCIOECONÓMICO DE LA INVERSIÓN PÚBLICA EN BRASIL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56238/arev7n12-084Palabras clave:
Desigualdad Regional, Gasto Público, Política Social, Cambio Institucional, DesarrolloResumen
Se teoriza generalmente que la inversión pública disminuye la desigualdad, pero sus efectos en el mundo real dependen de la gobernanza. Este estudio analiza cómo la asignación del presupuesto público en Brasil moldea la vulnerabilidad socioeconómica. El hallazgo principal revela una paradoja: aunque las inversiones reducen significativamente la vulnerabilidad en áreas de bajos ingresos, las fallas institucionales socavan su potencial, incluyendo la mala asignación y la captura por parte de las élites. Utilizando datos subnacionales de proyectos finalizados, mostramos que el gasto en agricultura, urbanismo y áreas sociales en regiones desfavorecidas genera ganancias de bienestar mensurables. Sin embargo, estos efectos se diluyen sistemáticamente debido a la distribución politizada de recursos y a la supervisión débil. Nuestros hallazgos destacan cómo las restricciones de la economía política transforman la inversión pública de una herramienta de redistribución en un mecanismo que refuerza las desigualdades espaciales y de clase. Al vincular la política fiscal con los resultados de vulnerabilidad, ofrecemos un marco para analizar las raíces institucionales del gasto ineficiente en democracias desiguales, con implicaciones para reformas en Brasil y más allá.
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