ALÉM DOS RETORNOS FISCAIS: O IMPACTO SOCIOECONÔMICO DO INVESTIMENTO PÚBLICO NO BRASIL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56238/arev7n12-084Palavras-chave:
Desigualdade Regional, Gastos Públicos, Política Social, Mudança Institucional, DesenvolvimentoResumo
O investimento público é geralmente teorizado como um mecanismo de redução da desigualdade, porém seus efeitos no mundo real dependem da governança. Este estudo analisa como a alocação do orçamento público no Brasil molda a vulnerabilidade socioeconômica. O principal achado revela um paradoxo: embora os investimentos reduzam significativamente a vulnerabilidade em áreas de baixa renda, falhas institucionais comprometem seu potencial, incluindo má alocação e captura por elites. Usando dados subnacionais de projetos concluídos, mostramos que os gastos em agricultura, urbanismo e áreas sociais em regiões desfavorecidas promovem ganhos mensuráveis de bem-estar. No entanto, esses efeitos são sistematicamente diluídos pela distribuição politizada de recursos e pela supervisão fraca. Nossos achados destacam como as restrições da economia política transformam o investimento público de uma ferramenta de redistribuição em um mecanismo que reforça desigualdades espaciais e de classe. Ao vincular a política fiscal aos resultados de vulnerabilidade, oferecemos um quadro para analisar as raízes institucionais do gasto ineficiente em democracias desiguais, com implicações para reformas no Brasil e além.
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