EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF ZIKA VIRUS CASES IN MINAS GERAIS (2019-2023): TRENDS, SEASONALITY, AND PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

Abstract

Introduction: The Zika virus, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, caused significant outbreaks in Brazil in 2015-2016, when it was associated with an increase in cases of microcephaly in newborns. Since then, epidemiological surveillance has focused on monitoring its prevalence and impact, especially in Minas Gerais, a state facing challenges due to climatic conditions and population density. The relationship between Zika virus and microcephaly, along with other associated complications, remains a concern. Objective: This study aims to analyze the patterns and trends of Zika virus cases in Minas Gerais from 2019 to 2023, focusing on annual variations, distribution by age group, sex, and geographic region, and discussing these data in light of current literature on the disease. Methodology: This is an ecological, retrospective, and descriptive study using secondary data from the Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos (SINASC) and the Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS (SIH/SUS). The analysis included Zika virus cases from 2019 to 2023, considering variables such as sex, age group, race/color, and macroregion. Adjusted rates were calculated using data from the IBGE. Results: The number of Zika cases increased starting in 2021, with a significant peak in 2023. The highest incidence occurred between March and May, with an increase in the Centro and Norte regions of Minas Gerais. Women and young adults (20-39 years) were the most affected groups. Seasonal and geographic distribution indicated a correlation with climatic conditions and population density. Discussion: The increase in cases can be explained by seasonality and increased rainfall favoring mosquito proliferation. Regional differences in case numbers are related to healthcare access, with the Centro and Norte regions having higher incidence rates. Literature confirms that women of reproductive age are at higher risk due to exposure to the vector, while the decrease in microcephaly cases after 2016 reflects effective control strategies. Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of continuous vector control policies and health education, in addition to the need for ongoing monitoring, especially during high-risk periods, to reduce the spread of Zika and associated complications.