VULNERABILITY TO URBAN FLOODING: A GEOSTATISTIC APPROACH FOR RISK ANALYSIS

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events have caused significant disruptions to social systems, leading to considerable environmental impacts and directly affecting the lives of communities. This study investigates the vulnerability of São José dos Campos (SJC), in the Paraíba Paulista Valley, Brazil, to flooding, exploring the relationship between flood records, geographic characteristics, and disorderly urban occupation. The analysis integrates altimetric and precipitation data, using geoprocessing techniques and the Local Moran Index to examine the spatial correlation between altitude and flooding. Among the results, a significant autocorrelation was observed between altitude and flood records, with greater vulnerability in low-lying areas, in addition to a 62% reduction in flood events between 2009 and 2018, associated with mitigating interventions. The findings indicate that topographic characteristics and intense precipitation increase the risk of flooding, reinforcing the need for planning policies and improvements in drainage infrastructure to strengthen urban resilience. The study also highlights the need for public policies aimed at sustainable urban planning and adaptation to climate change. In this scenario, continuous investments in monitoring technologies and participatory governance are essential for mitigating risks, protecting the most vulnerable communities, and promoting a balanced coexistence between urban development and socio-environmental sustainability.