ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE AND HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS AMONG CHILDREN AGED 4 TO 9 YEARS IN THE FEDERAL DISTRICT, BRAZIL, IN 2024: LOCAL EVIDENCE FROM A THERMALLY CRITICAL YEAR
Keywords:
Temperature, Hospital Admissions, Children, Climate Change, Federal DistrictAbstract
Climate variability has intensified over recent decades, altering thermal and precipitation patterns throughout Brazil. In Brasília, a continuous rise in mean annual temperature has been reported, with 2024 identified by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) as the hottest year on record, consistent with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2024) global assessment. Considering this context, the objective was to assess the association between average monthly temperature and total hospital admissions among children aged 4–9 years in the Federal District during 2024. To this end, we proceed to conduct an ecological time-series study using official data from INMET (monthly mean temperature) and DATASUS/SIH (pediatric admissions). Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) and the Mann–Whitney U test were applied to compare colder (< 22 °C) and warmer (≥ 22 °C) months. In this way, a significant inverse correlation was found (r = –0.69; p = 0.014), indicating higher pediatric admissions during cooler months. These findings allow us to conclude that thermal fluctuations during 2024 influenced pediatric hospital demand in the Federal District, emphasizing the need for climate-informed health policies focused on child vulnerability.
