ANALYSIS OF THE PHILLIPS CURVE IN BRAZIL: IS IT STILL VALID? A RELATIONSHIP WITH THE END OF THE 6 X 1 SCALE

Abstract

This study considers the econometric and theoretical validity of the Phillips Curve in Brazil during the period 2000-2024, articulating some important insights and analytical findings based on the arguments of Keynes, Friedman, Phelps, and Marxist-Kaleckian thought. Recent data show that the relationship between inflation and unemployment gradually decreases, particularly after the consolidation of the inflation targeting regime and the increase in informality, as well as with the growing weight of supply and expectations shocks. Episodes from 2010 onwards, including the 2015-2016 recession and the post-2020 stagflation, show, to some extent, an almost flat curve, meaning that the local reaction to inflation is more influenced by structural, distributive, and financial factors than by the labor market cycle. Applying this Kaleckian critique allows for a reconfiguration of unemployment as a means of political discipline in the workplace. This transforms the Phillips Curve from a technical model into an instrument embedded in power relations. Finally, it discusses how changes in work organization, such as the debate over whether the 6x1 work schedule should end, can reshape the link between employment, income, and inflation. It places the core of our economic policies in social time and distributive justice.