THE ECONOMIC CRISIS, A PHENOMENON THAT ECONOMIC THEORY DOES NOT PREDICT

Abstract

Economic crisis are recurrent phenomena in the history of economy and intensified as of the 20th century, with increasingly shorter cycles, with local or global dimensions, seeming to go against economic theories and the attempts of economic agents, governments and authorities in the planning and exercise of an efficient control. The purpose of this article is to defend the hypothesis that the occurrence of economic crises is a cyclical phenomenon of the economy, inevitable, unpredictable and uncontrollable and that economic theories based on “céteris paribus” rule, are not sufficient to predict and prevent them. Bibliographical research and documental analysis were carried out to identify theories, grounds, facts, data and historical information in relation to three major global economic crises (1929, 1973 and 2008) analyzing current theories, frameworks and governance models and confronting these in the three crises.  Accordingly, the hypotheses of these crises being inevitable, unpredictable and uncontrollable were confirmed, considering the number of agents, variables of political, social and ideological forces, diffuse interests of different groups and of the factors to be managed, in addition to the unpreparedness, discoordination, and naivety of agents and governments.  It can be concluded that economic theories, based on the céteris paribus rule, are not sufficient to predict and prevent the occurrence of economic crises, once the countless executors have diffuse interests and limited capacities.